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IMF Tells Croatia National Bank To Be Ready To Prevent Excessive Household Borrowing

By Matthew Russell Lee, CJR PFT NY Post

NEW YORK CITY, February 13 – When the International Monetary Fund held its biweekly embargoed media briefing on February 7, Inner City Press submitted five questions including two on Zimbabwe and Barbados which the IMF answered, see below. Now on February 13 from the IMF on Croatia, this: "On February 8, 2019, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the 2018 Article IV consultation[1] with the Republic of Croatia.     In 2018, Croatia continued its fourth year of positive economic growth supported by strong private consumption, and exports of goods and services. Wages are growing, employment is rising, and inflation remains benign. Over the next few years, growth is expected to moderate, as the economy moves closer to its potential. The current account is projected to decline but remain in surplus, while external indebtedness is expected to continue to decline.     Fiscal consolidation continued in 2018 but at a slower pace. While revenue performance remained strong, public spending also grew, in part due to an increase in public sector employment outlays. The activation of state guarantees issued for a troubled shipyard also reduced the overall fiscal surplus. Public investment remained below programmed. The government has reiterated its commitment to improving the quality of budgetary spending and continue public debt reduction going forward.      Monetary policy has remained accommodative within the limits of the exchange rate anchor. Intrabank liquidity has remained ample, and money market and commercial interest rates are low. Bank lending to households has been growing. Credit to the non-financial corporate sector, however, has remained subdued. The CNB has utilized the current conditions to build reserves, and further accumulation may occur over the coming period as the country enters ERM-II. The banking system is, on average, very liquid, well-capitalized, and has continued to gradually reduce the NPL ratio... Directors commended the Croatian National Bank for its conservative prudential policies, and encouraged the authorities to consider additional measures to prevent excessive household borrowing if needed. They welcomed efforts to continue to reduce the stock of non-performing loans, and stressed the need to closely monitor corporate indebtedness. Directors encouraged continued improvements in bankruptcy legislation, and advised a comprehensive review to ensure that the insolvency framework aligns fully with international best practice." On February 12 from IMF spokesperson Gerry Rice on Ecuador, this: "Gerry Rice, the International Monetary Fund’s chief spokesperson, made the following statement on Ecuador today:     “The IMF together with other partner multilateral financial institutions have been engaged in a close dialogue with the Ecuadorian authorities over policies to strengthen Ecuador’s economy for the benefit of all Ecuadorians.     “As part of this partnership, the Ecuadorian authorities and the IMF have agreed to deepen this dialogue with the goal of working toward a possible IMF-supported financial arrangement. This potential IMF supported arrangement would aim to protect the poor and most vulnerable, boost competitiveness and job creation, improve transparency and strengthen the fight against corruption as well as fortify the institutional foundations for dollarization.     “In this context, an IMF team is currently in Quito to continue this dialogue and identify how the IMF can best support the government’s home-grown policy plan." This is the same Ecuador whose foreign minister Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés is claiming openness at the UN while inviting bribees and banning the Press...  On February 7 Inner City Press asked, "On Zimbabwe, what is the IMF's comment on reports that " Zimbabwe has cleared its arrears with the IMF, but the country still owes $687 million to the AfDB, $1.4 billion to the World Bank and $322 million to the European Investment Bank" and on recent developments including crackdowns in the country?" Spokesperson Gerry Rice said that the IMF's rules mean it would not lend while arrears exist to other multilateral organizations; on the crackdown he emphasized that all stakeholders should proceed "peacefully." Inner City Press also asked, "On Barbados, former co-chair of Jamaica’s EPOC Richard Byles has said the circumstances which forced Jamaica to turn to the IMF were very similar to those currently faced by Barbados with very high debt to GDP ratios and low foreign reserves. Any IMF comment? Has Barbados reached out to the IMF?" Rice responded about the EFF program initiated last October - here's from the transcript: "There is one other -- a couple of other questions on line I'll take. One is on Barbados where, again, Matthew Lee is asking the former co-chair of Jamaica's EPOC, Richard Byles, has said the circumstances which forced Jamaica to turn to the IMF were very similar to those currently faced by Barbados, very high debt levels, low foreign reserve. Any IMF comment, has Barbados reached out to the IMF, the answer is clearly yes because last October our Board approved a program, a financial program for Barbados under our extended fund facility, one of those instruments that we can use when countries are in difficulty. So just confirming that." And on Zimbabwe: "Then let me take a few calls from this -- there is one on Zimbabwe asking about -- what is our comment on reports that Zimbabwe has cleared its arrears with the IMF but the country still owes, he says 687 million to the African Development Bank, 1.4 billion to the World Bank, 322 million to the European investment bank and on recent developments including the crackdowns in the country.  We have talked quite a bit about Zimbabwe here in the past but just to answer the question, it’s -- I can confirm that -- and I’ve said it before here, that Zimbabwe has cleared, indeed, its arrears to the IMF but arrears remain outstanding to other multilateral creditors, including the World Bank and that severely limits Zimbabwe’s access to international financial support -- Zimbabwe has no arrears to the IMF. Our rules preclude lending given the arrears to other financial institutions.  And on the crackdown he asks about, I don't have too much to add beyond what I said here before, which is that we encourage all stakeholders to collaborate peacefully -- and I think that's the word I would want to stress, is the "peacefully" -- and, you know, try to develop policies that will stabilize the economy and promote sustainable and inclusive growth. It's clearly a very difficult situation there in Zimbabwe and we recognize that." Inner City Press also asked, "On Nigeria, Minister of Budget and National Planning, Senator Udo Udoma, has said the nation’s economy will grow by 3.01 per cent this year, compared to a forecast of two per cent by the International Monetary Fund. What is the IMF's response?  What is the IMF's comment on the making public of US “Field Manual (FM) 3-05.130, Army Special Operations Forces Unconventional Warfare” and its mentions of the IMF? On Cameroon, now the US is cutting military aid due to human rights violations (and a Cameroon minister threatening opponents with a Holocaust). Do these issues, and the continued crackdown in the Southwest and Northwest of the country, have no impact the IMF's continued programs with the Biya government?" Somehow these Cameroon questions don't get answered. We'll have more on this. On Venezuela Rice made it clear that IMF has not spoken with Guaido, saying the IMF will take its guidance from the international community and stating of the IMF, "we don't do politics, we do economics." We'll have more on this.  Back from the IMF's January 17 transcript answering Inner City Press' Zimbabwe question at the time. RICE: "I'll take one more online and that's about Zimbabwe and asking for the status of where we are with the countries debt and relation with the IMF and did we have any comment on the unrest and the government crackdown there is the question.  So in answer to that, I would say that of course Zimbabwe is facing major challenges and just in terms of the unrest, we encourage all stakeholders to collaborate peacefully in developing and implementing policies that will stabilize the economy and promote sustainable and inclusive growth.  On the overall economic situation, debt and the IMF, there has been no real change in what I have said here recently which is Zimbabwe continues to be in a difficult situation regarding debt with protracted arrears to official creditors including multilateral creditors such as the World Bank which severely limits Zimbabwe's access to international financial support.  In terms of the IMF, Zimbabwe has in fact cleared its arrears to us, to the Fund, but our rules preclude lending to a country that is still in or under arrears to other international financial situations. So until that particular situation is resolved, we would not be moving forward with a financial support for Zimbabwe.  I said here the last time that the authority's economic policies we felt were headed in the right direction broadly in terms of addressing the fiscal deficit and monetary policy and so on. I won't repeat what I said the last time but that’s where we are on Zimbabwe."

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