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On Guatemala IMF Cites Giammattei and SDGs After Inner City Press Asks of Corruption

By Matthew Russell Lee, CJR PFT NY Post

NEW YORK CITY, Oct 8 – When the International Monetary Fund held its biweekly embargoed media briefing on September 26, Inner City Press submitted questions including on Turkey and Sri Lanka, see below.

 Now on October 8 on Guatemala from the IMF, this: "An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission, led by Esther Pérez Ruiz, visited Guatemala from October 1 to 8, 2019. The staff team reviewed recent economic developments and discussed with the authorities the macroeconomic outlook and policies, and reform agenda priorities. The staff team had fruitful discussions with the Bank of Guatemala, the Ministry of Finance, the Superintendence of Banks, and other representatives of public and private sectors. Amid the presidential transition period, the mission also engaged with the President-elect Alejandro Giammattei and members of his economic team.  At the end of the staff visit, Ms. Pérez Ruiz issued the following statement:  “The authorities’ efforts to maintain macroeconomic stability and to facilitate a smooth political handover after the elections are welcome. The immediate challenge is for the incumbent and the incoming administrations to agree on a set of policy priorities. Upon the inauguration of Mr. Alejandro Giammattei in January 2020, the new government’s efforts would be oriented towards gathering support for public sector and business climate reforms, and meaningfully raise tax collections, that would improve growth and living standards. On the revenue side, reversing the decline in tax collections is paramount to create fiscal space for social and infrastructure spending, consistent with the Sustainable Development Goals agenda... The adoption of a government-sponsored exports and investment promotion agency, the swift alignment of the national legislation with ILO Convention 169, and the passage of the infrastructure, leasing and insolvency laws are priorities to this end. Fiscal reforms in public procurement and civil service, and performance-based budgeting, are key to more efficient and agile use of public resources, and to improve tax morale. Further modernization of the financial system needs the approval of the bill on banks and financial groups, the AML/CFT bill, the securities market law, and the credit card law.  “The mission welcomes the new administration’s commitment to the anti-corruption efforts and looks forward to the roll out of concrete policy initiatives. In the near term, the authorities’ anti-corruption efforts should focus on sustaining prior legal and institutional progress.” We'll have more on this.

On September 26 Spokesperson Gerry Rice, now for new Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, on Turkey said "this is also from Matthew, he has asked ' On Turkey, what is the IMF's response to ruling AKP deputy chair Numan Kurtulmuş criticizing a meeting between IMF & opposition parties, saying Turkey has "closed the topic with the IMF."'

  Then Rice said it is normal to meet with opposition - except in Cameroon, apparently - and that there has been no indication from the Turkish authorities they are looking for a program.

 On September 24 on Sri Lanka the IMF cited the Easter terror attacks but remained silent on the suspected war criminal put atop the country's army, Shavendra Silva which Inner City Press has been asking the UN system about since February: "A staff team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) led by Manuela Goretti visited Colombo during September 10-25, 2019 to conduct the sixth review under Sri Lanka’s economic reform program supported by a four-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement. At the end of the visit, Ms. Goretti made the following statement: “The team reached understandings at the staff level with the Sri Lankan authorities on the sixth review of the EFF-supported program. The authorities are taking steps to complete all the pending actions and structural benchmarks for this review over the next few weeks. “The team welcomed the authorities’ efforts to normalize the security situation in the country after the tragic terrorist attacks in April and mitigate the impact of the shock on the economy. Real GDP growth was revised to 2.7 percent in 2019 and is projected to improve to 3.5 percent in 2020, as tourist arrivals and related activities gradually recover. Inflation is expected to remain stable at around 4.5 percent during 2019-20. Despite the recent fall in tourist arrivals and remittances, the current account balance is projected to improve to 2.6 percent of GDP in 2019 on the back of lower imports and stronger exports supported by the exchange rate correction in late 2018.  “Sustaining prudent policies and implementing institutional reforms remain critical to preserve macroeconomic stability, given the weak global outlook and Sri Lanka’s sizable public debt. “The protracted impact of the 2018 political crisis and the Easter attacks are significantly impacting fiscal performance. The end-June fiscal target was missed by a large margin, due to frontloading of spending from the clearing of arrears and externally-financed capital projects carried over from 2018 as well as a sharp fall in indirect revenues following the terrorist attacks. While the program targets agreed at the time of the fifth review are no longer within reach, the authorities are committed to achieve a primary fiscal surplus of 0.2 percent of GDP in 2019, through implementation of remaining revenue measures in the 2019 budget and prudent expenditure management. “The mission welcomed the authorities’ commitment to advance revenue-based fiscal consolidation in 2020 and over the medium term to preserve the gains achieved under the program, put the high public debt on a downward path, and provide space for better-targeted social and capital spending. Sustained efforts are needed to mobilize revenues, by broadening the tax base and enforcing compliance, and strengthen spending efficiency. To anchor public debt sustainability, the mission welcomed the authorities’ plans to revamp fiscal rules and establish an independent public debt management agency over the medium term, in line with international best practice. Improving the financial performance of SriLankan Airlines and advancing energy sector reforms, including by tackling cost inefficiencies and subsidies in the electricity sector, remain critical steps to reduce fiscal risks. “The mission supported the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL)’s prudent and data-dependent monetary policy approach and their renewed commitment to strengthen reserve buffers in line with program understandings. The CBSL should continue to allow for exchange rate flexibility and limit FX intervention to smooth excess volatility, in the event pressures from tighter global financial conditions were to intensify. The new Central Bank Act will be a landmark reform in the roadmap towards flexible inflation targeting by strengthening the CBSL’s mandate, governance, accountability, and transparency, in line with international best practice. “The CBSL adopted temporary measures to support the tourism sector and ease credit conditions in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks, including a debt service moratorium and caps on bank interest rates. These exceptional measures should be lifted as soon as credit conditions stabilize to avoid distortions to the financial system, amid weaker credit quality and falling profitability. The mission welcomed the ongoing efforts to strengthen the regulatory and supervisory regime for banks and non-bank financial institutions.... The team met with Prime Minister Wickremesinghe, Minister of Finance Samaraweera, State Minister of Finance Wickramaratne, Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka Coomaraswamy, Secretary to the Treasury Samaratunga, Senior Deputy Governor Weerasinghe, other public officials, representatives of the Parliamentary Opposition, business community, civil society, and international partners."

  On September 12 Inner City Press asked the IMF: "On Zimbabwe, please confirm or deny IMF's Patrick Imam saying that "it is clear, compared to the projections of the original SMP, which did not foresee the severity of the drought and its secondary impact, nor the electricity shock, that growth is almost certainly going to be revised downwards and inflation upwards compared to the original SMP forecasts." And what is the IMF's view of the (economic) impact of the crack down on protest and human rights defenders?"

  Spokesperson Gerry Rice said that the IMF team is in Harare, from September 5 to 17. On human rights, he said the IMF "focuses on economics" and that such questions should be directed to... bilateral creditor. At least he didn't say the UN, which doesn't care. Here are Inner City Press' other questions to the IMF:

On Somalia, please provide a read out or response to reports that Somali Minister of Finance Abdirahman Duale Beyle met officials from the IMF  Addis Ababa to discuss the fourth phase of the Somali pardon program.

On Sri Lanka, what is the IMF's response to Independent Expert on foreign debt and human rights, Juan Pablo Bohoslavsky, sayins that in Sri Lanka, there are concerns at the significant rise in the value added tax, given that the brunt of such taxes is often borne by the poorest?

More generally, what is the IMF's response to Bohoslavsky saying as to the IMF that "even though austerity can be a useful tool of administration against the squandering of resources, it is essential to keep in mind that austerity impacts the most vulnerable and marginalised"?

On crypto-currency what is the IMF's response to Marshall Islands Minister David Paul saying the country is moving forward with its plans. According to the post, Minister Paul will provide further details about the Marshall Islands’ crypto, the Sovereign, next week at the Invest: Asia 2019 conference?  Within months, the IMF began putting pressure on the Marshall Islands to not forego the U.S. dollar in favor of its own digital currency. The Fund issued a 58-page report in September 2018 and warned against the "potential costs arising from economic, reputational, AML/CFT, and governance risks" associated with the issuance of the Sovereign.

On the DR Congo, what is the IMF's knowledge of, and comment on, that all the big-name advisory banks are laying siege to the presidential palace in the hope of winning the contract to advise the DRC on its relations with the IMF?" Inner City Press also asked, again, for "any updates on Cameroon or Haiti or Yemen." Watch this site.

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