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On S. Sudan Firings & Oil, IMF Says Effects Will Be "Severe," UN Mute

By Matthew Russell Lee

UNITED NATIONS, July 25, updated -- While the UN has yet to speak on the mass firing of ministers by South Sudan's Salva Kiir, when Inner City Press asked the International Monetary Fund at its embargoed Thursday briefing, the IMF by contrast has an answer.

Inner City Press asked, "On South Sudan, how does IMF view the recent firing of Vice President and ministers... Petroleum Act and impending shut off of oil, what impact may these have?"

IMF deputy spokesperson William Murray said, "the effect on South Sudan and Sudan are likely to be quite severe, given the run down of their reserve buffers since 2011 and a progressive build up of economic and social tension."

About the firings, Murray said the IMF can't be precise what they mean for severe economic dislocation. But, he said, the IMF "hopes both countries implement their recent agreements." Who doesn't?

From the IMF's transcript of Inner City Press' question:

I have a question on South Sudan. We'll jump to Africa. I think we'll move off Europe for awhile. On South Sudan:

“How does the IMF view the recent firing of the vice president and ministers and non-passage of the petroleum act? What impact may this have?”

Thanks for that question. The effects on both countries, both South Sudan and Sudan, are likely to be quite severe, given the rundown of their reserve buffers since 2011, and a progressive build up of economic and social tensions. We can't give you a precise analysis of what these firings mean in terms of the severity of the economic dislocations in South Sudan and Sudan, but we basically hope that both countries will implement their recent agreements, given their importance for regional peace and economic stability. We also think that implementing these agreements will help relieve the economic pressures that have been building up since oil was shut down there in January of 2012.

Simultaneously at the UN in New York, US Secretary of State John Kerry brought up South Sudan, or really Jonglei state, making a call for humanitarian access on President Kiir "and others." What others?

Kerry was at the UN for a meeting about the Great Lakes region, with by video Jim Kim, president of the World Bank (but no one from the IMF) in attendance. But even Ban Ki-moon said the "first" order of business was Syria. And his UN has yet to speak about the firings in South Sudan. Is he waiting for instructions? Watch this site.

Footnote: Inner City Press has also asked the IMF about Belarus and Burundi: "On Burundi, what is IMF's advice to the country, does the IMF share concerns (such as those expressed by UN Peacebuilding configuration chair this week), what are the next steps?"

Update: After embargo, this arrived from an IMF spokesperson on Burundi - and on a previously asked Zimbabwe question:

· “The IMF continues to be engaged with Burundi through a three-year financing arrangement aimed at mobilizing domestic revenues, catalyzing donor support and strengthening public financial management.

· In order to keep the program on track in light of recent revenue slippages, the authorities submitted a revised budget to parliament this week. This will provide a framework for continued donor engagement through a series of sectoral conferences related to the implementation of projects in the priority sectors outlined within the authorities’ Poverty Reduction Strategy.

On Zimbabwe, the World Bank's country manager has said that "arrears clearance is the main thing." Does the IMF agree? What is the IMF look for from Zimbabwe?

· Zimbabwe is currently making payments to the Fund (and to the World bank and African Development Bank as well), but the country remains in arrears to the IMF and other multilateral and bilateral creditors

· We agree with the authorities that a comprehensive arrears clearance strategy supported by development partners will be essential for Zimbabwe going forward.

· The IMF supports the Zimbabwean authorities’ efforts to work towards arrears clearance.


Meanwhile an IMF spokesperson on July 25 sought clarification of an Inner City Press submitted two weeks earlier about Sri Lanka. Inner City Press has provided the clarification, asking if the IMF stand behind quotes attributed to IMF resident representative in Colombo Koshi Mathai and even more so Anoop Singh, IMF's Director for Asia and the Pacific region. We'll publish IMF's belated answer if and when received; watch this site.

 

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